Daniel P. Murphy

Category: Financial Markets

  • A Model of Expenditure Shocks

    with Jorge Miranda-Pinto, Eric R. Young, and Kieran James Walsh
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 154: 103807 Read

    Abstract

    We document four features of consumption and income microdata: (1) household-level consumption is as volatile as household income on average, (2) household-level consumption has a positive but small correlation with income, (3) many low-wealth households have marginal propensities to consume near zero, and (4) lagged high expenditure is associated with low contemporaneous spending propensities. Our interpretation is that household expenditure depends on time-varying consumption thresholds where marginal utility discontinuously increases. Our model with consumption thresholds matches the four facts better than does a standard model. Poor households in our model also exhibit “excess sensitivity” to anticipated income declines.

  • The Heterogeneous Reactions of Household Debt to Income Shocks

    with Nikolaos Koutinidis and Elena Loutskina
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    Abstract

    We study how household debt portfolios-aggregated at the ZIP code level-respond to local income shocks in the United States. We implement two separate identification strategies: (i) a Bartik-style instrument that shifts local earnings via national industry trends, and (ii) a novel instrument utilizing the timing and location of shale oil and gas well discoveries. Across both designs, positive income shocks are, on average, associated with deleveraging. This average, however, masks a sharp bifurcation in financial behavior. Deleveraging in total credit is driven by financially healthier households-those with higher credit scores, higher incomes, or lower leverage-who restrain the growth of credit-card and auto debt. In contrast, financially vulnerable households often treat the windfall as a gateway to new auto credit while still deleveraging credit-card and typically mortgage debt. Looking at mixed-profile households, we find strong mortgage leveraging among households with high income and high debt or low credit scores. These results show that the same income shock can trigger balance-sheet repair for some households and additional leverage for others-varying by both borrower type and debt category-underscoring substantial underlying heterogeneity and highlighting barriers to broad-based financial stability.

  • Home Size, Residential Density, and Aggregate Demand

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    Abstract

    This paper documents that smaller homes and denser neighborhoods are associated with higher household saving rates. This relationship is apparent within and across U.S. households, across countries, and over time in the U.S. The micro data indicate the importance of complementarity between housing and non-housing consumption. Incorporating complementarity into a macroeconomic model implies that denser countries with smaller homes have higher household savings rates, a lower natural rate of interest, and lower sensitivity of non-housing consumption to monetary policy. Furthermore, growth in the non-housing sector alongside stable home sizes is associated with a declining natural rate of interest. High density and small homes may contribute to Japan’s lost decade and persistent stagnation.

  • Saving constraints, inequality, and the credit market response to fiscal stimulus

    with Jorge Miranda-Pinto, Kieran James Walsh, Eric R. Young
    European Economic Review, 151, 104355, Read

    Abstract

    We document substantial heterogeneity in the interest rate response to fiscal stimulus (IRRF) across OECD economies. The IRRF is negative in half of the OECD countries, and it declines with income inequality. To interpret this evidence we develop a model in which moderately-low-income households take on debt to maintain a consumption threshold (effectively a saving constraint). Now burdened with debt, these households use additional income to deleverage. In more unequal economies with more saving-constrained households, increases in government spending tighten credit conditions less (relax credit conditions more), leading to smaller increases (larger declines) in the interest rate.

  • Effects of Fiscal Policy on Credit Markets

    with Alan J. Auerbach and Yuriy Gorodnichenko
    AEA Papers and Proceedings, 110, 119-124, Read

    Abstract

    Credit markets typically freeze in recessions: access to credit declines, and the cost of credit increases. A conventional policy response is to rely on monetary tools to saturate financial markets with liquidity. Given limited space for monetary policy in the current economic conditions, we study how fiscal stimulus can influence local credit markets. Using rich geographical variation in US federal government contracts, we document that, in a local economy, interest rates on consumer loans decrease in response to an expansionary government spending shock.

  • Drilling and Debt

    with Erik P. Gilje adn Elena Loutskina
    The Journal of Finance, 75(3), 1287-1325, Read

    Abstract

    This paper documents a previously unrecognized debt-related investment distortion. Using detailed project-level data for 69 firms in the oil and gas industry, we find that highly levered firms pull forward investment, completing projects early at the expense of long-run project returns and project value. This behavior is particularly pronounced prior to debt renegotiations. We test several channels that could explain this behavior and find evidence consistent with equity holders sacrificing long-run project returns to enhance collateral values and, by extension, mitigate lending frictions at debt renegotiations.

  • Fiscal Stimulus and Consumer Debt 

    with Yuliya Demyanyk and Elena Loutskina
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 101(4), 728–741, Read

    Abstract

    In the aftermath of the consumer debt–induced recession, policymakers have questioned whether fiscal stimulus is effective during periods of high consumer indebtedness. This study empirically investigates this question. Using detailed data on Department of Defense spending for the 2007–2009 period, we document that the open-economy relative fiscal multiplier is higher in geographies with higher consumer debt. The results suggest that in the short term (2007–2009), fiscal policy can mitigate the adverse effect of consumer (over)leverage on real economic output during a recession. We then exploit detailed microdata to show that both heterogeneous marginal propensities to consume and slack-driven economic mechanisms contribute to the debt-dependent multiplier.

  • The role of inventories and speculative trading in the global market for crude oil

    with Lutz Kilian
    Journal of Applied Economics, 29(3), 454-478, Read

    Abstract

    We develop a structural model of the global market for crude oil that for the first time explicitly allows for shocks to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to flow demand and flow supply. The speculative component of the real price of oil is identified with the help of data on oil inventories. Our estimates rule out explanations of the 2003–2008 oil price surge based on unexpectedly diminishing oil supplies and based on speculative trading. Instead, this surge was caused by unexpected increases in world oil consumption driven by the global business cycle. There is evidence, however, that speculative demand shifts played an important role during earlier oil price shock episodes including 1979, 1986 and 1990. Our analysis implies that additional regulation of oil markets would not have prevented the 2003–2008 oil price surge. We also show that, even after accounting for the role of inventories in smoothing oil consumption, our estimate of the short-run price elasticity of oil demand is much higher than traditional estimates from dynamic models that do not account for for the endogeneity of the price of oil. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  • Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market Var Models

    with Lutz Kilian
    Journal of the European Economic Association, 10(5), 1166-1188, Read

    Abstract

    Sign restrictions on the responses generated by structural vector autoregressive models have been proposed as an alternative approach to the use of exclusion restrictions on the impact multiplier matrix. In recent years such models have been increasingly used to identify demand and supply shocks in the market for crude oil. We demonstrate that sign restrictions alone are insufficient to infer the responses of the real price of oil to such shocks. Moreover, the conventional assumption that all admissible models are equally likely is routinely violated in oil market models, calling into question the use of posterior median responses to characterize the responses to structural shocks. When combining sign restrictions with additional empirically plausible bounds on the magnitude of the short-run oil supply elasticity and on the impact response of real activity, however, it is possible to reduce the set of admissible model solutions to a small number of qualitatively similar estimates. The resulting model estimates are broadly consistent with earlier results regarding the relative importance of demand and supply shocks for the real price of oil based on structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models identified by exclusion restrictions, but imply very different dynamics from the posterior median responses in VAR models based on sign restrictions only.